100m
Gold: Usain Bolt (JAM)
Silver: Justin Gatlin (USA)
Bronze: Nesta Carter (JAM)
The only way Bolt loses this is if he false starts. Hard to think that'll happen after 2011. The other big boys, Yohan Blake (injury) and Tyson Gay (PEDs) are out.
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| Bolt on his way to victory in the 200m in London |
Gold: Usain Bolt (JAM)
Silver: Warren Weir (JAM)
Bronze: Wallace Spearmon (USA)
Again, the only person who can beat Bolt is himself. Weir, the 2012 bronze medalist, will take silver with easy. I don't even know who to pick for bronze because it could be anyone but I'll go with Spearmon for his experience.
400m
Gold: Kirani James (GRE)
Silver: LaShawn Merritt (USA)
Bronze: Luguelín Santos (DOM)
James is the defending Olympic and World champion and the only non-American to break 44.00. I don't think Tony McQuay is quite ready to medal after the rounds. That will come in 2015.
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| Aman topping Rudisha in 2010 |
Gold: Mohammed Aman (ETH)
Silver: Nick Symmonds (USA)
Bronze: Duane Solomon (USA)
Yes. You read that right. Two Americans are going to medal. A year after the greatest 800m ever, in which the world record was broken, 7 of 8 athletes set PRs, 5 people broke 1:43, the entire field broke 1:44, and 3 national records were set, this race will be a little different. Rudisha and Amos are out with injury and Athletics Kenya decided not to send last year's bronze medalist, Timothy Kitum. That means Americans Solomon and Symmonds are the top two returners. Still, I'm picking Aman for the victory--he ran 1:42.53 in Zurich last year and is the last person to beat Rudisha back in 2011. This year, he sports a best of 1:43.33 and has been winning a handful of races on the European circuit. Solomon beat Symmonds at USAs but Symmonds has had the upper hand as of late; if he can make sure he has good position in the final 300m, Symmonds will beat Solomon. Apparently Yuriy Borzakovskiy is out due to "illness".
1500m
Gold: Asbel Kiprop (KEN)
Silver: Silas Kiplagat (KEN)
Bronze: Ayanleh Souleiman (DJI)
Kiprop ran 3:27.72 in Monaco a couple of weeks ago. If it's a kicker's race, he wins. If he wants a drag race, he wins. He was banged up pretty badly last year in London when he limped in to a 12th place finish. That said, he's the defending World champion and was crowned Olympic champion in 2008 after Rashid Ramzi was DQed for doping, so Kiprop's no stranger to the big stage. Behind him is kind of a mess. Americans Leo Manzano (2nd in London) and Matt Centrowitz (4th in London, 3rd in Daegu) haven't shown much to indicate that they'll be able to snag any hardware. Also note that Charlestown High (Massachusetts) graduate and UMass Lowell runner Omar Abdi got an exemption to compete for Somalia.
5000m
Gold: Edwin Soi (KEN)
Silver: Mo Farah (GBR)
Bronze: Yenew Alamirew (ETH)
A combination of Farah blowing a goat a little too early with his 3:28 in Monaco plus the prelims of the 5k and the 10k final before having to run here means he'll get outkicked by Soi. Farah's got the wheels if it's slow, but the East Africans should know better than to let that happen--if they let it go 13:41 like they did last year, Farah will blow them out of the water. I also think this is the end of the line for Bernard Lagat.
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| Jeilan ousting Farah in 2011. Don't expect a repeat. |
Gold: Mo Farah (GBR)
Silver: Dejen Gebremeskel (ETH)
Bronze: Kenenisa Bekele (ETH)
Farah is fresh and will want some redemption after getting shocked by Ibrahim Jeilan in Daegu. Bekele's a longshot, but even the shell of a 12:37/26:17 runner can contend.
110m hurdles
Gold: Aries Merritt (USA)
Silver: David Oliver (USA)
Bronze: Orlando Ortega (CUB)
Oliver looks to be back near 2010 form after his atrocious 2012 season. Merritt has been a little banged up but should be good to go when it's time.
400m hurdles
Gold: Javier Culson (PUR)
Silver: Michael Tinsley (USA)
Bronze: Felix Sanchez (DOM)
After two silvers at the WCs and bronze in London, it's Culson's year. I don't think Tinsley has the requisite championship experience to pull out the win.
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| Why not finish in lane 8 for a 7.5 lap race? |
Gold: Ezekiel Kemboi (KEN)
Silver: Paul Kipsiele Koech (KEN)
Bronze: Conseslus Kipruto (KEN)
The steeple is the Kenyan national pastime. The biggest question here is how outrageously will Kemboi celebrate.
4x100m relay
Gold: Jamaica
Silver: USA
Bronze: Great Britain
Both Jamaican and American relays got hit hard by the recent doping bans, and Jamaica was already without Blake due to injury. Still, it's hard to bet against Bolt, and it's equally hard to bet on the US getting the stick around.
4x400m relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Bahamas
Bronze: Trinidad and Tobago
The US will not lose this after they got ravaged by injuries in London. A 3-4 finish punch of McQuay and Merritt will be too much for anyone to deal with.
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